Search for: All records

Abstract Historical wildfire events in California have shown a tendency to occur every five to seven years with a rapidly increasing tendency in recent decades. This oscillation is evident in multiple historical climate records, some more than a century long, and appears to be continuing. Analysis shows that this 5–7 year oscillation is linked to a sequence of anomalous large-scale climate patterns with an eastward propagation in both the ocean and atmosphere. While warmer temperature emerges from the northern central Pacific to the west coast of California, La Niña pattern develops simultaneously, implying that the lifecycle of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation that takes multiple years to form could be a trigger. The evolving patterns of the Pacific-to-North America atmospheric teleconnection suggest the role of tropical and subtropical forcing embedded in this lifecycle. These results highlight the semi-cyclical hydrological behavior as a climate driver for wildfire variability in California. 

The Rothermel fire spread model provides the scientific basis for the US National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) and several other important fire management applications. This study proposes a new perspective of the model that partitions the reaction intensity function and Energy Release Component (ERC) equations as an alternative that simplifies calculations while providing more insight into the temporal variability of the energy release component of fire danger. We compare the theoretical maximum reaction intensities and corresponding ERCs across 1978, 1988 and 2016 NFDRS fuel models as they are currently computed and as they would be computed under the proposed scheme. The advantages and disadvantages of the new approach are discussed. More study is required to determine its operational implications.